Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 9:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ 8pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.24 in

LAX (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?