Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1291 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Today

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

departs 8:43 PM CT · arrives 9:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 8pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

LAX (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1291 · AUS → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?