Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1389 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1389 · MIA → LGA

departs 8:40 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

LGA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1389 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?