Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1450 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1450 · CLT → IAD

departs 6:06 PM ET · arrives 7:36 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.08 in

IAD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1450 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?