Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1479 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1479 · JFK → MIA

departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1479 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?