Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:50 PM CT · arrives 11:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1599 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?