AA 1642 · MCO → MIA

departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 9:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
24%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

MIA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1642 · MCO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?