Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1721 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

AA 1721 · MIA → BNA

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1721 · MIA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?