Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1743 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1743 · ORD → PHL

departs 11:40 AM CT · arrives 2:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,467 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1743 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?