AA 1804 · SAT → CLT

took off 12:30 PM CT · landed 3:49 PM ET (scheduled 12:12 PM CT → 4:06 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CLT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

CLT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1804 · SAT → CLT

Odds over time

How late did it get to CLT?