Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1816 LANDED 12:55 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 1816 · CLT → EYW

took off 11:12 AM ET · landed 12:55 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ EYW is prone to delays

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ 10am departures from CLT are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.22 in

EYW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1816 · CLT → EYW

Odds over time