Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

departs 5:17 PM CT · arrives 6:29 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

63% chance · ±8 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.52 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?