Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1836 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

departs 7:38 AM CT · arrives 8:46 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ SAT is prone to delays

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

SAT (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?