Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1837 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1837 · PHX → TPA

departs 3:29 PM MT · arrives 10:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 3pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1837 · PHX → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?