AA 1846 · MEM → CLT

took off 8:27 AM CT · expected to land 10:34 AM ET (scheduled 8:14 AM CT → 11:02 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CLT?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MEM that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 8am departures from MEM are usually not late

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.01 in

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1846 · MEM → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?