Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1850 LANDED 8:37 AM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 1850 · DCA → JAX

took off 7:00 AM ET · landed 8:37 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into JAX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

JAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip3.92 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1850 · DCA → JAX

Odds over time