Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1891 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1891 · GRR → CLT

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±6 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GRR

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1891 · GRR → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?