AA 1944 · DCA → TPA

took off 4:43 PM ET · landed 6:47 PM ET (scheduled 3:52 PM ET → 6:29 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TPA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1944 · DCA → TPA

Odds over time

How late did it get to TPA?