Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1999 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 1999 · CLT → JAX

departs 3:49 PM ET · arrives 5:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.54 in

JAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1999 · CLT → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?