Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2033 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2033 · CLT → LGA

departs 11:39 AM ET · arrives 1:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.26 in

LGA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2033 · CLT → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?