Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2064 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2064 · ORD → MCO

departs 3:08 PM CT · arrives 7:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2064 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?