Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2104 · DCA → MCO

departs 9:00 AM ET · arrives 11:28 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 9am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ DCA is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2104 · DCA → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?