Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2104 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2104 · MCO → DCA

departs 12:13 PM ET · arrives 2:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.25 in

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2104 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?