Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2109 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2109 · MCO → PHL

departs 5:37 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2109 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?