Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2111 · PHL → MIA

departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 6pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2111 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?