AA 2124 · MIA → JFK

took off 4:57 PM ET · landed 7:27 PM ET (scheduled 4:22 PM ET → 7:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2124 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?