Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2146SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 2146 · PHX → MSP
departs 8:53 AM MT · arrives 2:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
13%chance · ±2 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.