AA 2228 · JFK → MIA

took off 4:20 PM ET · landed 6:45 PM ET (scheduled 4:10 PM ET → 7:17 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2228 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?