Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2251 · DFW → BWI

departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.35 in

BWI (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2251 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?