Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2251 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2251 · DFW → BWI

departs 7:37 PM CT · arrives 11:43 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ BWI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

BWI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2251 · DFW → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?