AA 2254 · DFW → IAD

took off 5:58 PM CT · landed 9:18 PM ET (scheduled 4:21 PM CT → 8:32 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2254 · DFW → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?