Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2271 LANDED 8:30 PM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 2271 · MIA → LGA

took off 6:08 PM ET · landed 8:30 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2271 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time