AA 2347 · MIA → SFO

departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 12:05 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2347 · MIA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?