Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2410 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2410 · CLT → RIC

departs 4:10 PM ET · arrives 5:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at RIC that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ RIC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.79 in

RIC (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2410 · CLT → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?