AA 2416 · ORD → EWR

took off 10:28 AM CT · landed 1:01 PM ET (scheduled 10:11 AM CT → 1:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2416 · ORD → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?