Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2463 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2463 · MIA → SAN

departs 8:12 PM ET · arrives 10:38 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±6 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2463 · MIA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?