Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2488 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2488 · CLT → ORD

departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 7:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2488 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?