Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2508 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2508 · CLT → SMF

departs 6:31 PM ET · arrives 9:03 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.53 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2508 · CLT → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?