Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2510 · DFW → SBA

departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 11:47 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↓ Arrivals into SBA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.61 in

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2510 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?