Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2510 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 5

AA 2510 · DFW → SBA

departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 11:47 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2510 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?