Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2514 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2514 · SFO → CLT

departs 10:05 PM PT · arrives 6:11 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2514 · SFO → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?