Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2531 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2531 · PHL → MCO

departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2531 · PHL → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?