Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2541 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2541 · MIA → IAH

departs 7:42 PM ET · arrives 9:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2541 · MIA → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?