Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2542 · DFW → PHL

departs 8:19 PM CT · arrives 12:35 AM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.44 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2542 · DFW → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?