AA 2603 · JFK → MIA

took off 8:53 PM ET · landed 11:26 PM ET (scheduled 6:06 PM ET → 9:03 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from JFK are often late

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2603 · JFK → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?