Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2629 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2629 · MIA → AUS

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

AUS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2629 · MIA → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?