AA 2651 · CLT → ORF

departs 3:21 PM ET · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.83 in

ORF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2651 · CLT → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?