Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2738 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2738 · STT → MIA

departs 4:50 PM AST · arrives 7:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ STT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STT (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

MIA (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2738 · STT → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?