Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2773 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2773 · TPA → DCA

departs 7:30 PM ET · arrives 10:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DCA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

DCA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2773 · TPA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?