Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2798 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AA 2798 · MIA → TPA

departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2798 · MIA → TPA

Odds over time